Infectious disease, the climate, and the future.

Emergence and resurgence of infectious diseases are serious threats to population health. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused an enormous human toll and health crisis. Responses to the pandemic are significantly affecting the global economy. What is most concerning about COVID-19 is not the virus itself, but rather that it may compound with other and more serious crises. Climate change will likely affect human health, economy, and the society more than disease outbreaks. Governments at all levels, from local to international, can chart a greener, healthier, and equitable course for the future, investing in strategies and technologies that minimize and prevent risks, including those posed by climate change and the pandemic, promoting obligations to drastically reduce emissions, enhancing societal equality, improving community resilience, and achieving sustainable development goals.

Vaccination status for mild and asymptomatic infections with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant in Shanghai.

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of different vaccine regimens on mild and asymptomatic infections with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant in Shanghai. All asymptomatic patients and those with mild symptoms of Omicron infections were recruited from three major Fangcang shelter hospitals between March 26, 2022 and May 20, 2022. Nucleic acid for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction methods in nasopharyngeal swabs was assessed every day during the hospitalization. The value of cycle threshold lower than 35 was considered as positive result of SARS-CoV-2. A total of 214 592 cases were included in this study. The proportion of the asymptomatic patients was 76.90% and 23.10% of the recruited patients had mild symptoms. The median (interquartile range [IQR]: 25-75) duration of viral shedding (DVS) was 7 (5-10) days among all participants. The DVS varied greatly among different age groups. Children and the elderly had longer DVS compared with the adults. The booster shot of inactivated vaccine contributed to the shorter DVS in patients aged ≥70 years compared with the unvaccinated patients (8 [6-11] vs. 9 [6-12] days, p = 0.002]. Full inactivated vaccine regimen contributed to the shorter DVS in patients aged 3-6 years (7 [5-9] vs. 8 [5-10] days, p = 0.001]. In conclusion, the full inactivated vaccine regimen on children aged 3-6 years and booster inactivated vaccine regimen on the elderly aged ≥70 years appeared to be effective in reducing DVS. The booster vaccine regimen should be rigorously promoted and implemented.

Association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A time-stratified case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited regarding the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVE: To investigate the independent and interactive effects of temperature, relative humidity (RH), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the spread of COVID-19 in LMICs. METHODS: We collected daily data on COVID-19 confirmed cases, meteorological factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in 2143 city- and district-level sites from 6 LMICs during 2020. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the independent and interactive effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission after controlling NPIs. We generated an overall estimate through pooling site-specific relative risks (RR) using a multivariate meta-regression model. RESULTS: There was a positive, non-linear, association between temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases in all study sites, while RH and UV showed negative non-linear associations. RR of the 90th percentile temperature (28.1 °C) was 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.28] compared with the 50th percentile temperature (24.4 °C). RR of the10th percentile UV was 1.41 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.54). High temperature and high RH were associated with increased risks in temperate climate but decreased risks in tropical climate, while UV exhibited a consistent, negative association across climate zones. Temperature, RH, and UV interacted to affect COVID-19 transmission. Temperature and RH also showed higher risks in low NPIs sites. CONCLUSION: Temperature, RH, and UV appeared to independently and interactively affect the transmission of COVID-19 in LMICs but such associations varied with climate zones. Our results suggest that more attention should be paid to meteorological variation when the transmission of COVID-19 is still rampant in LMICs.

Effects of short-term quarantine on growth and development of children aged 1-36 months during the Omicron outbreak.

Consequences of epidemic quarantine on children's well-being are not clear and there are scarce data about the short-term impact of epidemic quarantine on children's growth and development. The study aimed to explore and analyze the potential impacts of the Omicron outbreak on children's growth and development during the lockdown in Shanghai, China. Totally, 4565 children aged 1-36 months who had a routine physical examination in the child health departments of hospitals before (June 1, 2021, to July 6, 2021) and after (June 1, 2022, to July 6, 2022) Shanghai's lockdown were included in this study. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted by using the Infant Toddler Growth Development Screening Test (ITGDST). The children's growth and development in these two periods were compared with a propensity score matching (PSM) approach. After 1:1 matching, a total of 2462 children aged 1-36 months were analyzed. After PSM, there was no significant difference in terms of overall development, gross motor, fine motor, and language development for children before and after the Omicron lockdown. However, statistically significant decrease of wasting was observed for children after the lockdown (p < 0.05). Further interaction analysis indicated older age group (OR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.59) and the group of second parity (OR = 0.30, 95% CI 0.11-0.83) were favorable to language development during the lockdown.  Conclusion: Short-term quarantine had no significant adverse, but rather beneficial, effects on growth and development of children aged 1-36 months during the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai, China. What is Known: • Consequences of epidemic quarantine on children's well-being are not clear. Long-term psychological effects of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on children have been reported. However, there are scarce data about the short-term impact of epidemic quarantine on children's growth and development. What is New: • Short-term quarantine had no significant adverse, but rather beneficial, effects on growth and development of children aged 1-36 months during the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai, China.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Rapid shortening of survival duration in early fatal cases of COVID-19, Wuhan, China.

Severe COVID-19 cases place immediate pressure on hospital resources. To assess this, we analysed survival duration in the first 39 fatal cases in Wuhan, China. Time from onset and hospitalization to death declined rapidly, from ~40 to 7 days, and ~25 to 4 days, respectively, in the outbreak's first month.

Association between vaccinations and clinical manifestations in children with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The infection rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children was less than that in adults. However, the underlining reason is not well known. METHODS: Children with COVID-19 were recruited from two Children's Hospitals in Wuhan and Shanghai in this case-control study. The associations of initial symptoms with age, vaccinations of Bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG), and influenza and pathogens were determined by Chi-square t-test. RESULTS: We evaluated 248 confirmed cases, and 56 suspected cases with COVID-19. The median age was 6.82 years old, and 118 cases (38.82%) were girls. Furthermore, 30.26% of all patients were asymptomatic cases. The percentage of asymptomatic cases vaccinated with BCG was not significantly higher than that without BCG vaccination [86/280 (30.71%) vs. 6/13 (46.15%), P=0.203], and initial symptoms were not related with immunized influenza vaccine (P=0.267). Compared to parameters in pediatric patients with normal body temperatures, patients with fever had higher C reactive protein (CRP) (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric COVID-19 patients with BCG vaccinations exhibit similar clinical manifestations compared to those without BCG vaccinations, and the severity of symptoms in pediatric patients may be related to the maturity of immune function.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 Among Children in China.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the epidemiological characteristics and transmission patterns of pediatric patients with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China. METHODS: Nationwide case series of 2135 pediatric patients with COVID-19 reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 16, 2020, to February 8, 2020, were included. The epidemic curves were constructed by key dates of disease onset and case diagnosis. Onset-to-diagnosis curves were constructed by fitting a log-normal distribution to data on both onset and diagnosis dates. RESULTS: There were 728 (34.1%) laboratory-confirmed cases and 1407 (65.9%) suspected cases. The median age of all patients was 7 years (interquartile range: 2-13 years), and 1208 case patients (56.6%) were boys. More than 90% of all patients had asymptomatic, mild, or moderate cases. The median time from illness onset to diagnoses was 2 days (range: 0-42 days). There was a rapid increase of disease at the early stage of the epidemic, and then there was a gradual and steady decrease. The disease rapidly spread from Hubei province to surrounding provinces over time. More children were infected in Hubei province than any other province. CONCLUSIONS: Children of all ages appeared susceptible to COVID-19, and there was no significant sex difference. Although clinical manifestations of children's COVID-19 cases were generally less severe than those of adult patients, young children, particularly infants, were vulnerable to infection. The distribution of children's COVID-19 cases varied with time and space, and most of the cases were concentrated in Hubei province and surrounding areas. Furthermore, this study provides strong evidence of human-to-human transmission.